A new poll has found that if Donald Trump gets elected as US president, it could be the beginning of the end of our special relationship – or at the very least it would warrant an “it’s complicated” status.
A whopping 45% of voters believe that if a president like Trump gets into office, Australia should cool things off with the US. At least from a politics point of view. Should be fine to stick with Netflix.
“It’s a striking and somewhat disturbing result because one of the strongest and most consistent polling results in the Lowy Institute’s history has been support for the US alliance,” said executive director Michael Fullilove.
In 2015, the annual poll from the Lowy Institute found that 80% of Australian adults saw the relationship as ‘very’ or ‘fairly’ important. In fact, overall support (including ‘very’, ‘fairly’, and ‘somewhat’ important) has never dropped below 90% in the poll’s history.
Viewed in this context, the newly released figures could mark an unprecedented reversal of support should Trump become the next POTUS.
Although the poll didn’t ask people about their views on the property developer billionaire Trump specifically, it’s no secret that he has been causing offence left, right, and centre in recent months.
As Mr Fullilove so tactfully put it, “Donald Trump is crass and bombastic and egotistical and he embodies very few of the greatest qualities of the US: open-mindedness, generosity, willingness to lead and take a liberal definition of America’s interests.”
Mexicans, Muslims and women are among the groups that Trump has isolated with his recent comments, with policy observers in disbelief at his apparent plans to cut off the US from international obligations and alliances.
Many people question whether the former host of reality show The Apprentice has any serious presidential credentials. With one of Trump’s former mega-mansions set for complete demolition by its new Russian oligarch owner, it’s clear that the kind of circles he belongs in are not those that the average American can relate to.
According to Kim Beazley, the former Australian ambassador to the US, Trump has “no regard for alliances at all” and is an extreme and unrepresentative figure.
Joe Hockey, who replaced Mr Beazley, has been assured by some of Trump’s closest advisors that the wannabe president views the US-Aussie link as a “special relationship”, but no such words have been uttered by the man himself.
Having fought together in every big military conflict in the last century, Australia and the US have a strong history as well as close cultural and economic ties; something that American voters would be wise not to ignore.
It wouldn’t be the first time that the choice of president has made support for the relationship waver. During the presidency of George W. Bush in 2007, the number of Australians viewing the relationship as ‘very’ or ‘fairly’ important dropped to a low of 63%, with 69% saying that the president himself had given them an unfavourable view of the US.
But we don’t need to have that awkward “I think we should take a break” conversation just yet. Although it looks like Mr Trump will win the Republican nomination, he will still have Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton to contend with in the November general election.
Polls suggest that the Democrats will win the vote, but Mr Fullilove reminds us that it ain’t over until it’s over.
“He is a clear favourite to win the nomination of one of the world’s great political parties,” Mr Fullilove said.
“If he were to win the nomination, I think Hillary Clinton would be the favourite to win the election but either horse can win in a two-horse race.”
Industry Minister Christopher Pyne recently spoke up about the Trump phenomenon, calling it “terrifying” and “kind of weird”, but most of his peers are retaining an impartial position on the political fence for the time being.
